The Iranian election debacle is in full swing now. The blogosphere and twitfeeds (yes, there is a reason they’re called that) are full of rumours, conjectures, damned lies and a smattering of facts. Thanks to a large expatriate Iranian community at SFU, I’ve been kept abreast of all the events.
There isn’t much they can do from here, beyond token shows of solidarity and hitting F5 to the point of repetitive-stress injury. So let us examine all possible outcomes of the current hysteria.
- The youth actually manage to overthrow the government: This is the most desirable outcome for them, but it’s highly unlikely. At present, the crowds are angry spillovers onto the street without much organization. To actually defeat the brutal regime, they’d need sympathetic armed forces unwilling to fire on fellow Iranians and organization, LOTS of better organization. A truly violent revolution is almost unthinkable, I don’t think the average Iranian household stockpiles guns.
- The demonstration runs out of fire in the next week(s): This is the most likely, the rage will peter out and things will return to an eerie calm in the Islamic Republic of the Aryans. If this does happen, it’s safe to assume that the fires will stay dormant for a while, outwardly hidden but always smouldering with the passion of those who tasted freedom for a brief interval and then had it yanked away.
There is always the hidden face of the Ayatollah behind everything. One has to admire the perverse brilliance of a mind that can accomplish such feats. Present the public with two odious candidates, one only slightly more evolved than the other and watch the people duke it out and get distracted from real issues: it’s the economy, stupid!
One more thing, more and more Iranians need to reject Islam and all its superstitious hogwash. Surely they can see that their fundamentalist brand of religion is the real problem here. It’s what’s led a bunch of hypocritical holier-than-thous to power and given them the ability to impose their barbaric, medieval rules on a largely young and hip populace. Get rid of the mad mullahs and sanity will resume. Everything else is just a symptom of pandering to religion. There’s a reason Mike Huckabee was called “The Ayatollah of Arkansas”, effectively ending his mainstream chances: because the Ayatollah is the epitome of what should be avoided, a religious madman in charge of a state.
So, what is to happen now? After it all dies down and telecommunication links are restored, the youth band together and send each other secret messages in ways the older generations can’t fathom. Supported by the disapora, the flame of revolution burns in silence, until one day it all erupts. Like Tiananmen but hopefully more successfully.
Footnote: the image shows a crudely manipulated Khamenei vs Mousavi. The title is an alliterative wordplay, a la Kramer vs. Kramer. I know they’re different, but I couldn’t resist. After all, why would Khomenei fight Khamenei?