Picture Absurdistan: an oil-rich country ruled by despots, giving the innocent masses an illusion of choice, then yanking away that illusion with spurious vote-counting and obvious statistical fabrications. The innocent masses revolt and the authoritarian rulers send in their oil-fed ticks and imported mercenaries to subdue the rabble, how dare they rebel! Don’t they know that they should cower behind their chador forever, the spirit of God demands it be so! How dare they have the unmitigated gall to even dream of revolution! Return to your homes and praise God, and never meddle with the powers that be again.
But the people are young and idealistic, they don’t submit so easily. They rally in the millions and demand justice, Western-capitalistic style, the very thing the ruling elite detest. Perhaps all the propaganda from the free world gave them silly ideas like freedom of expression, freedom of speech, of assembly and so on. Such nonsensical notions must be crushed underfoot immediately, the elite thinks and vow to take sterner measures.
Not satisfied with shooting at and harassing people in broad daylight, the junta sends in the goons at night. People’s property is destroyed, people disappear in the middle of the night and the threat of violent retribution against all those who protested is now more real than ever. All communication with the outside world is monitored or completely severed. The people are isolated in their country and the beam of information grows dim. The brave diaspora rally on, but the nascent cause is crushed under the juggernaut.
Ok, enough allegories. At this point, the outcome is pretty straightforward. The people lack the arms and capabilities to launch a full scale assault on the ruling elite, especially with the Basij and Hezbollah goons on the prowl. The only alternative left is a war of attrition, some sort of urban guerrilla warfare. Perhaps an uprising reminiscent of the Warsaw Ghetto, though of course, in much milder form, since the Iranians are in no danger of being the victims of genocide. The Ayatollah can’t rule 11 million corpses after all.
There are many avenues open for the Iranians. From what we know, the majority of Iranians are below the age of 30, and their parents fought in the former revolution and the Iraq war. This vast reservoir of military experience must be tapped: how to cut phone wires, how to make Molotov cocktails, how to infiltrate government agencies, how to take over radio and TV stations and so on. All the fine skills that people learn when trying to wipe out wholesale numbers of one another.
One more thing, the resistance needs a charismatic leader, a la Che Hormizadeh. There’s already a rallying cry for an icon of the rebellion: Neda Agha-Soltan, who will hopefully become the Emmett Till of the Iranian people. But who will rise and take command of the revolt? One man or woman, who will be doomed to live a life of unease in shadows, trusting no one, coordinating everything and in perpetual danger of betrayal before the glorious finale.
A final thought: all this must not be for the sake of Mousavi. Dying for an illusion of choice is foolhardy at best, and stupid at worst. If people have to die, they might as well sacrifice themselves for real change, not another petticoat Emperor of the Ayatollah’s picking. A secular democracy, with separation of church and state and all that other stuff that we take for granted in the more enlightened parts of the world. And of course, if this is something that the majority of Iranians don’t want, then it will never come to be. A few rebellious idealists in a few metropolises take over a whole country and institute their own law….doubtful.
This is no game and I wish the Iranians all the best. Beat the Bastards!